As the Indian stock market wraps up another volatile session on October 1, 2025, traders and investors are buzzing with anticipation for what’s next. The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty indices showed resilience, snapping an eight-day losing streak amid positive cues from the RBI’s policy stance. This detailed analysis breaks down the day’s action, backed by real-time data from sources like NSE India and market reports. Whether you’re an intraday trader or eyeing swing opportunities, we’ll explore price movements, technical indicators, and actionable strategies for October 3, 2025.
Drawing from the latest market data, the Nifty 50 closed at 24,836.30, up 0.92%, while Bank Nifty surged to 55,227.70, gaining 1.08%. These moves come against a backdrop of stable repo rates at 5.5% and RBI’s optimistic GDP growth revision to 6.8% for FY26. Let’s dive in, keeping things straightforward and insightful for your trading journey.
Key Takeaways
The market rebounded strongly on October 1, 2025, with Nifty 50 climbing 225.20 points to close above 24,800. Bank Nifty outperformed, rising over 1% driven by private banks.
RBI’s decision to hold rates steady and ease lending norms boosted sentiment, particularly in banking and realty sectors.
Technical indicators point to a potential short-term bottom reversal, with Nifty forming a bullish candle after testing key supports.
Global cues were mixed, but domestic stability overshadowed concerns like US shutdown risks.
For October 3, focus on intraday levels around 24,700-25,000 for Nifty and 55,000-55,500 for Bank Nifty, with swing setups favoring bulls above recent highs.
India VIX dropped sharply to around 10.29, signaling reduced volatility and bull comfort.
Sector-wise, private banks and realty shone, while PSU banks lagged slightly.
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This rebound could mark the start of a new uptrend, but caution is key amid upcoming holidays and global events.
Nifty 50 Price Action
On October 1, 2025, Nifty 50 opened flat at 24,620.55 but quickly gained momentum, hitting a high of 24,867.95 before closing at 24,836.30. This 0.92% gain formed a long bullish candle on the daily chart, breaking an eight-session downtrend.
The index bounced from crucial support near 24,500-24,600, which aligns with the 200-day EMA and an ascending trend line. This reversal pattern suggests buyers are stepping in, potentially eyeing 25,000 as the next hurdle.
Intraday, volatility was evident with swings between 24,605.95 (low) and the day’s peak. Volume surged to 308.90 million shares, indicating strong participation. Compared to the previous close of 24,611.10 on September 30, this uptick reflects renewed optimism post-RBI policy.
From a candlestick perspective, the bullish engulfing-like formation hints at a shift from bearish to bullish control. However, the index remains below its 50-day EMA at around 24,750, so sustained buying is needed for confirmation.
Traders should note that Nifty has retraced 61% of its recent Fibonacci move from September lows to highs, positioning it for a potential push toward 25,453 if momentum holds.
Bank Nifty Price Action
Bank Nifty started at 54,653.90 and rallied to a high of 55,390.10, closing at 55,227.70 with a 1.08% gain. This outperformed Nifty, forming a robust bullish candle and breaking above key resistances.
The index surged past 55,150, a prior resistance, signaling bullish intent. Private banks led the charge, with Kotak Mahindra up 1.7% and ICICI Bank gaining 1.1%, while PSU banks dipped marginally.
Volume was solid at 98.31 million shares, lower than the previous day’s 206.88 million but still indicative of conviction. The close above 55,000 marks a breakout, with the index now above all major EMAs, including the 100-day at 54,750.
This move comes after testing supports around 54,500-54,600, aligning with RBI’s pro-lending measures that favor banks. If sustained, Bank Nifty could target 55,500-55,750 soon.
Overall, both indices showed synchronized strength, but Bank Nifty’s outperformance highlights sector-specific tailwinds from policy easing.
Global Market and Macro Updates
Globally, markets were mixed on October 1, 2025. The US S&P 500 saw slight gains amid shutdown concerns, while Asian peers like Nikkei dipped on yen strength. European indices rose modestly on positive economic data.
In India, the RBI’s MPC kept the repo rate at 5.5%, as expected, but lowered FY26 inflation forecast to 2.6% and hiked GDP growth to 6.8%. Measures like raised IPO financing limits and reduced risk weights for infrastructure loans boosted banking stocks.
The rupee strengthened to 88.69 against the USD, up 9 paise, supported by stable forex reserves. Auto sales data for September showed mixed results, with Tata Motors up 5.54% on strong numbers.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued outflows for the sixth day, but domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided cushion. Oil prices hovered around $70 per barrel, easing inflation worries.
Macro-wise, India’s manufacturing PMI remains robust, signaling growth continuity. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could impact sentiment.
For traders, these updates underscore a supportive domestic environment, but global volatility warrants monitoring. Integrate this with our TradingView Indicator for real-time global correlations.
Technical Indicator Table (RSI, VIX, PCR)
Technical indicators provide a snapshot of market health. On October 1, 2025, RSI for Nifty rose from 41 to 55, indicating building momentum without overbought conditions. Bank Nifty’s RSI hit 55, showing similar strength.
India VIX fell 7.03% to 10.29, below short-term averages, suggesting lower fear and bull-friendly volatility.
PCR for Nifty improved to 0.72-0.91, tilting toward put writing and potential stability. For Bank Nifty, it stood at 0.91, reflecting bullish undertones.
These metrics, sourced from NSE and analyst reports, point to a positive shift. RSI above 50 often precedes uptrends, while low VIX supports sustained rallies.
Sector Performance Table
Sector performance was broadly positive on October 1, 2025. In Nifty 50, banking weighed 20.68% and contributed to the 0.92% gain, followed by IT at 12.26%. FMCG and autos also supported.
For Bank Nifty, private banks (74.64% weight) drove the 1.30% rise, outperforming public banks (25.36%).
Data from NSE and market analyses shows realty and pharma up 1-4%, while PSU banks dipped 0.2%. This highlights rotational strength in rate-sensitive sectors post-RBI.
Trading Strategy for 03/10/25 (Intraday + Swing)
Intraday Strategy for Nifty 50
For October 3, 2025, approach Nifty intraday with a bullish bias above 24,700. Buy on dips near 24,790 support, targeting 24,890-25,000. Stop-loss at 24,600 to protect against reversals.
If below 24,700, short toward 24,550, with resistance at 24,800. Use 15-minute charts for entries, focusing on volume spikes.
Incorporate options: Consider bull put spreads if PCR holds above 0.8. Avoid over-leverage amid holiday-thinned volumes.
Intraday Strategy for Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty intraday: Go long above 55,150, aiming for 55,500-55,750. Support at 54,900; breach could see 54,500.
Short below 55,000, targeting 54,850. Private bank strength suggests favoring stocks like ICICI or Kotak.
Swing Strategy for Nifty 50
For swings, hold longs if Nifty closes above 24,850, eyeing 25,200 in a week. Trail stops to 24,600.
If bearish breakdown below 24,550, swing short toward 24,300. Use weekly charts for confirmation.
Swing Strategy for Bank Nifty
Swing long above 55,200, targeting 56,000-56,300. Support at 54,900.
Downside: Short below 54,900 for 54,300. RBI tailwinds favor upside.
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These strategies are based on October 1 data, emphasizing risk management. Backtest with historical patterns for better accuracy.
Key Levels Table
| Index | Support 1 | Support 2 | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,700 | 24,550 | 24,890 | 25,000 |
| Bank Nifty | 55,000 | 54,850 | 55,500 | 55,750 |
Levels derived from Fibonacci, EMAs, and pivot analysis. Monitor for breakouts.
Final Thoughts
October 1, 2025, marked a turning point for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty, with RBI’s steady hand providing the spark. While upside potential exists toward 25,000 and 55,500, respectively, global uncertainties and FII flows could cap gains.
Stay disciplined, use tools like our free resources, and adapt to real-time data. The market’s resilience suggests opportunities, but always trade with caution.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Consult a professional advisor before trading. Data sourced from reliable outlets like NSE, but markets can change rapidly. intradayafl.online is not liable for any losses.
